Will Jay Cutler have a better/worse/similar season?

[Deleted]

2015: 92.3
2014: 88.6
2013: 89.2
2012: 81.3
2011: 85.7
2010: 86.3
2009: 76.8

Average Rating: 86.0

I'm probably delusional in thinking this, but when looking at the numbers (and in subjectively thinking about his career arc with the Bears) Jay Cutler has been progressively getting better over the past few years. I expect that trend to continue I've said this multiple times in the past few months and I'll probably say it again: I think Jay Cutler's matured as a player and has a better sense of his strengths and weaknesses and THAT (IMHO) is helping him be a better player.

[JABF]

Sept 4, 2016 9:02:12 GMT -6 @belliot said:

MEH. You gotta subtract the QBs with fewer than 200 passes for this to mean something. The QBR number, in particular, is so distorted with those players in there. Subtracting the QBs with fewer than 200 passing attempts, Jay Cutler had the 15th highest QBR of QBs and ranks 22nd in yards per game.

Regardless of the backup QBs and 5 pass QBs, Jay Cutler will be higher than 28th next year. That's easy.

That is true for the passer rating, and YPG passing is dependent upon a lot more than the QB play.  And in total yards passing Jay was 19th.  I guess the better question would be, will he be better, worse or about the same this year as the QB - and not get too much into a single metric or two.

[Deleted]

Sept 4, 2016 8:00:18 GMT -6 JABF said:

 Last season Jay was ranked 28th in the NFL in YPG passing and also QB passer rating (LINK).

Will he be better, worse or about the same (ranked 28th) this season?  This will be a fun thread to re-visit at the end of the season, and see how close we came.

But he didn't have the 28th lowest QBR and YPG is a  pretty narrow view of how to rank them.  Based on this method both Cam Newton (29th), Aaron Rodger (30th) and Teddy Bridgewater (38th) are ranked below Jay and yet the Vikes won the NFCN, the Porkers were second, and Newton was a Super Bowl QB.

To me the more telling stats are those where Jay actually outperformed Rodgers last year and yet some  see Aaron as the best QB in the NFC and Cutler as one of the worst.  If Jay can operate that offense as efficiently as he did last year and add more big plays via having his top receivers playing for 16 games I think we'll all be pretty pleased with the results.

[JABF]

Sept 4, 2016 13:49:46 GMT -6 @soulman said:

Sept 4, 2016 8:00:18 GMT -6 JABF said:

 Last season Jay was ranked 28th in the NFL in YPG passing and also QB passer rating (LINK).

Will he be better, worse or about the same (ranked 28th) this season?  This will be a fun thread to re-visit at the end of the season, and see how close we came.

But he didn't have the 28th lowest QBR and YPG is a  pretty narrow view of how to rank them.  Based on this method both Cam Newton (29th), Aaron Rodger (30th) and Teddy Bridgewater (38th) are ranked below Jay and yet the Vikes won the NFCN, the Porkers were second, and Newton was a Super Bowl QB.

To me the more telling stats are those where Jay actually outperformed Rodgers last year and yet some  see Aaron as the best QB in the NFC and Cutler as one of the worst.  If Jay can operate that offense as efficiently as he did last year and add more big plays via having his top receivers playing for 16 games I think we'll all be pretty pleased with the results.

All good points.  I'd just forget the reference to any metrics.  Just go with the original post question, "Will Jay have a better/worse/similar season this year?" because it is admittedly very subjective when you look at individual metrics.

[Deleted]

Sept 4, 2016 18:58:32 GMT -6 JABF said:

Sept 4, 2016 13:49:46 GMT -6 @soulman said:

But he didn't have the 28th lowest QBR and YPG is a  pretty narrow view of how to rank them.  Based on this method both Cam Newton (29th), Aaron Rodger (30th) and Teddy Bridgewater (38th) are ranked below Jay and yet the Vikes won the NFCN, the Porkers were second, and Newton was a Super Bowl QB.

To me the more telling stats are those where Jay actually outperformed Rodgers last year and yet some  see Aaron as the best QB in the NFC and Cutler as one of the worst.  If Jay can operate that offense as efficiently as he did last year and add more big plays via having his top receivers playing for 16 games I think we'll all be pretty pleased with the results.

All good points.  I'd just forget the reference to any metrics.  Just go with the original post question, "Will Jay have a better/worse/similar season this year?" because it is admittedly very subjective when you look at individual metrics.

I'll go out on a limb and say that even with a more run centric offense provided his receivers stay on the field he'll have his first 4000 yard season as a Bears QB.  I expect the running game to carry the ball down the field more this year and for Jay to be able to air it out downfield more frequently especially if we can make the play action stuff payoff.

That may be why Loggains decided he wanted more size and speed in his WR core which meant Mariani and Braverman were lesser fits at the moment than guys like Meredith, Bellamy, and Thompson.

[JABF]

Sept 4, 2016 19:10:54 GMT -6 @soulman said:

Sept 4, 2016 18:58:32 GMT -6 JABF said:

All good points.  I'd just forget the reference to any metrics.  Just go with the original post question, "Will Jay have a better/worse/similar season this year?" because it is admittedly very subjective when you look at individual metrics.

I'll go out on a limb and say that even with a more run centric offense provided his receivers stay on the field he'll have his first 4000 yard season as a Bears QB.  I expect the running game to carry the ball down the field more this year and for Jay to be able to air it out downfield more frequently especially if we can make the play action stuff payoff.

That may be why Loggains decided he wanted more size and speed in his WR core which meant Mariani and Braverman were lesser fits at the moment than guys like Meredith, Bellamy, and Thompson.

You could be on to something there.  It will be a HUGE asset if we can more consistently convert those short yardage situations & extend drives.  It just seemed like in the past few years we've struggled using the run to do this.  It seemed like on too many short goal line situations we passed because we knew we couldn't get it punched in with a run.  All too often it seemed the same with 3rd-and-short plays.  Sure, there were exceptions to this, but the power run game seemed non-existent to me.

If the run game is stout in these short yardage situations it has to benefit Cutler's game.  We become more of a multi-threat offense.

[Deleted]

Sept 4, 2016 19:21:02 GMT -6 JABF said:

Sept 4, 2016 19:10:54 GMT -6 @soulman said:

I'll go out on a limb and say that even with a more run centric offense provided his receivers stay on the field he'll have his first 4000 yard season as a Bears QB.  I expect the running game to carry the ball down the field more this year and for Jay to be able to air it out downfield more frequently especially if we can make the play action stuff payoff.

That may be why Loggains decided he wanted more size and speed in his WR core which meant Mariani and Braverman were lesser fits at the moment than guys like Meredith, Bellamy, and Thompson.

You could be on to something there.  It will be a HUGE asset if we can more consistently convert those short yardage situations & extend drives.  It just seemed like in the past few years we've struggled using the run to do this.  It seemed like on too many short goal line situations we passed because we knew we couldn't get it punched in with a run.  All too often it seemed the same with 3rd-and-short plays.  Sure, there were exceptions to this, but the power run game seemed non-existent to me.

If the run game is stout in these short yardage situations it has to benefit Cutler's game.  We become more of a multi-threat offense.

Having to use bubble screens and 5 yard hitches to WRs just to move the ball on first and second down in order to stay out of 3rd and long deals has been really annoying.  With backs like Howard and Carey who can get you 3-5 tough yards whenever they get a carry should help avoid that.

RBs and FBs should average 8 yards per catch but not your TEs and WRs.  The only way to get opponents to back off on the 8 in the box shit is to start throwing 15 yards downfield so they have to start dropping their LBs and leave that SS back to cover.  If we're forced to throw underneath a lot to me that means the run game should open up.

[Deleted]

Sept 4, 2016 19:28:33 GMT -6 @soulman said:

Sept 4, 2016 19:21:02 GMT -6 JABF said:

You could be on to something there.  It will be a HUGE asset if we can more consistently convert those short yardage situations & extend drives.  It just seemed like in the past few years we've struggled using the run to do this.  It seemed like on too many short goal line situations we passed because we knew we couldn't get it punched in with a run.  All too often it seemed the same with 3rd-and-short plays.  Sure, there were exceptions to this, but the power run game seemed non-existent to me.

If the run game is stout in these short yardage situations it has to benefit Cutler's game.  We become more of a multi-threat offense.

Having to use bubble screens and 5 yard hitches to WRs just to move the ball on first and second down in order to stay out of 3rd and long deals has been really annoying.  With backs like Howard and Carey who can get you 3-5 tough yards whenever they get a carry should help avoid that.

RBs and FBs should average 8 yards per catch but not your TEs and WRs.  The only way to get opponents to back off on the 8 in the box shit is to start throwing 15 yards downfield so they have to start dropping their LBs and leave that SS back to cover.  If we're forced to throw underneath a lot to me that means the run game should open up.

Exactly. However, I've noticed that with Cutlers newfound respect for INT aversion, he is playing more conservative. More of a short game than a long passing game. Not very exciting to watch, but hopefully Loggains will open it up a little more.

[Deleted]

Sept 4, 2016 19:10:54 GMT -6 @soulman said:

Sept 4, 2016 18:58:32 GMT -6 JABF said:

All good points.  I'd just forget the reference to any metrics.  Just go with the original post question, "Will Jay have a better/worse/similar season this year?" because it is admittedly very subjective when you look at individual metrics.

I'll go out on a limb and say that even with a more run centric offense provided his receivers stay on the field he'll have his first 4000 yard season as a Bears QB.  I expect the running game to carry the ball down the field more this year and for Jay to be able to air it out downfield more frequently especially if we can make the play action stuff payoff.

That may be why Loggains decided he wanted more size and speed in his WR core which meant Mariani and Braverman were lesser fits at the moment than guys like Meredith, Bellamy, and Thompson.

Good connection. We have a stable of big bodied or fast receivers who pose vertical threats. Even Eddie Royal who's our SL guy can run every route tree. The threat of the deep ball is always there and those 50/50
Jump balls with White Meredith and Jeffery should be 75/25 or better.

As good as that sounds though I'm grounded by the reality that is John Fox. Hopefully our very game isn't grounded too much by him.

[JABF]

Sept 5, 2016 7:46:24 GMT -6 @belliot said:

Sept 4, 2016 19:10:54 GMT -6 @soulman said:

I'll go out on a limb and say that even with a more run centric offense provided his receivers stay on the field he'll have his first 4000 yard season as a Bears QB.  I expect the running game to carry the ball down the field more this year and for Jay to be able to air it out downfield more frequently especially if we can make the play action stuff payoff.

That may be why Loggains decided he wanted more size and speed in his WR core which meant Mariani and Braverman were lesser fits at the moment than guys like Meredith, Bellamy, and Thompson.

Good connection. We have a stable of big bodied or fast receivers who pose vertical threats. Even Eddie Royal who's our SL guy can run every route tree. The threat of the deep ball is always there and those 50/50
Jump balls with White Meredith and Jeffery should be 75/25 or better.

As good as that sounds though I'm grounded by the reality that is John Fox. Hopefully our very game isn't grounded too much by him.

That's my feeling too.  And I am super-curious to see Fox's team perform this season - on a number of levels. I'm glad we have a coach who respects the run game.  But I also hope it isn't a one-dimensional predictable team on offense.  I'm hoping Cutler is allowed to do some vertical passing to these WR's in addition to having a healthy run game.