Fixing the OL

[JABF]

Nov 18, 2024 22:53:06 GMT -6 bearsinhouston said:

Nov 18, 2024 22:07:26 GMT -6 JABF said:

The point I was trying to make is that the team dropped the ball doing due diligence on Davis.  Don't do that again. 

I actually don't think they did. What I mean by that is that the data was out there. No way that they did no due diligence. And no way they did the due diligence and that stuff was not there. It's public domain stuff. Not stuff you need the CIA and NSA to uncover. They wanted him and they rationalized the stuff they got back and convinced themselves that either it was overblown, or that Flus, being the gift to NFL coaching would be able to take care of it. They saw it. But raw data is one thing. Interpreting it correctly and objectively is another animal (spoiler - that animal is not a bear)

I agree.  Here's my post-mortem on it.  Ryan Poles honestly thought he had done enough with his OL moves to get the team safely to 2025 with this offensive line.  He made moves in the draft and FA that he thought would be enough.  Then it all blew up in his face.  It was a significant mistake.  Nate Davis was a gamble, and Poles lost.

This can (and I believe will) be fixed in 2025.  My hope is that Poles doesn't fail on the offensive line again.  Man, he's gotta spend these high draft picks like they are priceless in value and his job depends upon him getting this right.

[mpbears68]

Nov 19, 2024 0:16:15 GMT -6 malagabears said:

Smith is getting more than 4/74, at least 4/84M. He's the best IOL this year & will tie or beat the top guard salary.

I expect his deal will be north of $20m AAV.  That's the price for the top guards now and TS is 25yo with a pretty clean injury history.  He's gonna command top of market money and KC can't afford to pay him that so I do think he could hit the open market.

It's a lot of coin, not denying that.  But Poles isn't paying anyone else big money on that OL right now.  Jenkins is in his final year so you either have to pay him or replace him.  I doubt Poles will be willing to pay him with his injury history and the fact that he was a Pace-draft-pick.  So the real cost of Trey Smith is the "extra" he costs compared to what you would have to pay Tevin to keep him.  

And then the other factor is that we need TWO guards.  Nate D is gone and Bates has proven even more unreliable injury-wise than Jenkins was.  So you are gonna have to draft a Guard as well and I would think one of the two 2nd round picks is going that direction.  

Then you still need a C.  And possibly a T too. And you definitely need a new OL coach as Chris Morgan has been here 2 years and no one has improved under his coaching.  

 

[mpbears68]

Nov 19, 2024 7:23:20 GMT -6 The Marshall Plan said:

Why do I need to pay an FA big money to a G or T when I have four picks in the first three rounds of the draft?

I will pay a stud center. The line needs a leader and that comes from a veteran. Outside of that we have all the draft picks we need to build the OL.

The thing rank and file (not you guys) Bears fans need to understand is that 2025 needs to be an extremely boring draft where it’s all OL in those three rounds.

We need to get 2 starters with some mix of LT, LG and RG and then we need bench guys for development and insurance.

I think you're gonna have to do both.  Draft and sign.  

You need to upgrade all 3 iOL positions and possibly LT as well, depending on how things fall.  You can't count on getting 3+ Day 1 starters from the draft.  And do you feel good about starting a rookie C in Caleb year 2?  Seems to me should have tried that this year if you were gonna do it.  I dunno, but I would have no problem with signing Trey Smith and a good vet C, then drafting two more OLs--one G and one T.

[mpbears68]

Nov 19, 2024 9:34:33 GMT -6 JABF said:

Nov 18, 2024 22:53:06 GMT -6 bearsinhouston said:

I actually don't think they did. What I mean by that is that the data was out there. No way that they did no due diligence. And no way they did the due diligence and that stuff was not there. It's public domain stuff. Not stuff you need the CIA and NSA to uncover. They wanted him and they rationalized the stuff they got back and convinced themselves that either it was overblown, or that Flus, being the gift to NFL coaching would be able to take care of it. They saw it. But raw data is one thing. Interpreting it correctly and objectively is another animal (spoiler - that animal is not a bear)

I agree.  Here's my post-mortem on it.  Ryan Poles honestly thought he had done enough with his OL moves to get the team safely to 2025 with this offensive line.  He made moves in the draft and FA that he thought would be enough.  Then it all blew up in his face.  It was a significant mistake.  Nate Davis was a gamble, and Poles lost.

This can (and I believe will) be fixed in 2025.  My hope is that Poles doesn't fail on the offensive line again.  Man, he's gotta spend these high draft picks like they are priceless in value and his job depends upon him getting this right.

It looks silly not but this COULD have been a good OL.

Bates has been a solid player.  Not great but solid.
Davis used to be a good G in TN.  It was hoped he would be healthy and do that again.
Jenkins has had stretches of excellent play.  It was hoped he would finally stay healthy and break out in a contract year.
Brax and Wright were bpth supposed to take steps forward in their developement (Brax yr 3, Darnell yr 2) and neither did -- Chris Morgan?

NOTHING positive you were hoping to see actually materialized.  It all went the other way.  It just shows you how much over-estimating your roster can bite you in the ass later.

[mpbears68]

Nov 19, 2024 7:36:18 GMT -6 brasilbear said:

(0) Fire Chris Morgan

(0.5) They must exit the season confident about every OL-man on the roster.

.........These guys will fall into 3 categories:

.........(a) Keeper -- long term
.........(b) keeper -- until they are replaced (see steps 1 and 2)
.........(c) not returning

(1) FA is fools gold so tread lightly. Every player available in FA comes with reason why they are there.

..........(a) low ball Jenkins or place a tag on him that lets the market determine his value and either decline or resign. I prefer the tag route even though players hate it. 

..........(b) Identify the best IOL on the market and sign him (again, after making sure the flags are minor)

(2) Draft at least 2 OL in the first three picks. No more 6th round picks with promise to be a franchise LT. There guys are harder to find than GOAT QBs in the later rounds. 

-----
When does Jones need to be extended? Thats going to be a nightmare. 

Guards and Centers rarely get tagged because the FT price is determined by the average of the top salaries across the WHOLE OL.  And OTs make more so it drives the FT cost too high to justify using.

Jenkins is nowhere near worth that.  The guy can't stay healthy.  He misses games and he starts games he can't finish.  I'd like to see the % of possible snaps he has played--I bet its under 50%.  I hope Poles walks away and signs Smith instead.

[brasilbear]

Nov 19, 2024 11:19:46 GMT -6 mpbears68 said:

Nov 19, 2024 7:36:18 GMT -6 brasilbear said:

(0) Fire Chris Morgan

(0.5) They must exit the season confident about every OL-man on the roster.

.........These guys will fall into 3 categories:

.........(a) Keeper -- long term
.........(b) keeper -- until they are replaced (see steps 1 and 2)
.........(c) not returning

(1) FA is fools gold so tread lightly. Every player available in FA comes with reason why they are there.

..........(a) low ball Jenkins or place a tag on him that lets the market determine his value and either decline or resign. I prefer the tag route even though players hate it. 

..........(b) Identify the best IOL on the market and sign him (again, after making sure the flags are minor)

(2) Draft at least 2 OL in the first three picks. No more 6th round picks with promise to be a franchise LT. There guys are harder to find than GOAT QBs in the later rounds. 

-----
When does Jones need to be extended? Thats going to be a nightmare. 

Guards and Centers rarely get tagged because the FT price is determined by the average of the top salaries across the WHOLE OL.  And OTs make more so it drives the FT cost too high to justify using.

Jenkins is nowhere near worth that.  The guy can't stay healthy.  He misses games and he starts games he can't finish.  I'd like to see the % of possible snaps he has played--I bet its under 50%.  I hope Poles walks away and signs Smith instead.

woof, I just checked the Fran-Tag and the Transition-Tag and both are way more than I'd offer Jenkins. 

Fran-Tag (projected) for OL $25mil and Transition-Tag is $22.7 mil. Wow, I was way off in my thinking on that. I thought Transtition tag would be about $10mil less. If I were Jenkins and the Bears tagged me, I'd sign either one immediately. I'm going to edit my post and take that option out.

[malagabears]

Nov 19, 2024 11:09:42 GMT -6 mpbears68 said:

Nov 19, 2024 7:23:20 GMT -6 The Marshall Plan said:

Why do I need to pay an FA big money to a G or T when I have four picks in the first three rounds of the draft?

I will pay a stud center. The line needs a leader and that comes from a veteran. Outside of that we have all the draft picks we need to build the OL.

The thing rank and file (not you guys) Bears fans need to understand is that 2025 needs to be an extremely boring draft where it’s all OL in those three rounds.

We need to get 2 starters with some mix of LT, LG and RG and then we need bench guys for development and insurance.

I think you're gonna have to do both.  Draft and sign.  

You need to upgrade all 3 iOL positions and possibly LT as well, depending on how things fall.  You can't count on getting 3+ Day 1 starters from the draft.  And do you feel good about starting a rookie C in Caleb year 2?  Seems to me should have tried that this year if you were gonna do it.  I dunno, but I would have no problem with signing Trey Smith and a good vet C, then drafting two more OLs--one G and one T.

I guess in hindsight a vet bridge "C" for 1 or 2 years won't be bad. But absolutely go after Smith. I have seen valuations as high as what I estimated, being 5/105M.

[mpbears68]

Nov 19, 2024 11:24:30 GMT -6 brasilbear said:

Nov 19, 2024 11:19:46 GMT -6 mpbears68 said:

Guards and Centers rarely get tagged because the FT price is determined by the average of the top salaries across the WHOLE OL.  And OTs make more so it drives the FT cost too high to justify using.

Jenkins is nowhere near worth that.  The guy can't stay healthy.  He misses games and he starts games he can't finish.  I'd like to see the % of possible snaps he has played--I bet its under 50%.  I hope Poles walks away and signs Smith instead.

woof, I just checked the Fran-Tag and the Transition-Tag and both are way more than I'd offer Jenkins. 

Fran-Tag (projected) for OL $25mil and Transition-Tag is $22.7 mil. Wow, I was way off in my thinking on that. I thought Transtition tag would be about $10mil less. If I were Jenkins and the Bears tagged me, I'd sign either one immediately. I'm going to edit my post and take that option out.

That's what I was trying to tell you.  Guards and Centers almost never get tagged because its too expensive to justify.  Another reason why KC probably will have to let Trey Smith go.

[JABF]

Nov 19, 2024 11:09:42 GMT -6 mpbears68 said:

Nov 19, 2024 7:23:20 GMT -6 The Marshall Plan said:

 Why do I need to pay an FA big money to a G or T when I have four picks in the first three rounds of the draft?

I will pay a stud center. The line needs a leader and that comes from a veteran. Outside of that we have all the draft picks we need to build the OL.

The thing rank and file (not you guys) Bears fans need to understand is that 2025 needs to be an extremely boring draft where it’s all OL in those three rounds.

We need to get 2 starters with some mix of LT, LG and RG and then we need bench guys for development and insurance.

I think you're gonna have to do both.  Draft and sign.  

You need to upgrade all 3 iOL positions and possibly LT as well, depending on how things fall.  You can't count on getting 3+ Day 1 starters from the draft.  And do you feel good about starting a rookie C in Caleb year 2?  Seems to me should have tried that this year if you were gonna do it.  I dunno, but I would have no problem with signing Trey Smith and a good vet C, then drafting two more OLs--one G and one T.

I agree.  It's usually not good to start more than one rookie per year on the OL.  Yes, there are exceptions.  This is why it's best to give some love to that OL every year - so you don't end up like the Bears.  But this is where the team finds itself.  I like what the Chargers have done, adding a stud a year for the last few years.  I'm not saying they have a perfect OL, but I like the method there.  They have a very young OL of ascending talents.  Watch what Harbaugh does with that offense behind that OL over the years.

I could see the Bears drafting their C of the future (a legit stud), and playing him at G for the first season.  He could still be a very valuable asset as a G for one year.  That would allow the team to have a vet next year instead of giving Caleb a rookie C.  Neither tackle is performing at the level they should be.  Wright has performed worse than Brax.  He's given up 5 sacks, 5 penalties, and allowed 21 pressures.  I'm beginning to think we have a G here for the future.  LOL, I hate to admit davidl was right about the slow feet thing.  But I think he very well is correct and Wright isn't a tackle.  Brax on the other hand, is "okay" as a T and maybe can continue to get a bit better.  Brax does have the quickness and intelligence to play the position.  By his own admission he needs to improve his technique.  

You add it all up and we need at least three starters: 1 tackle, 1 center and 1 guard at a minimum (assuming they can slide Wright over to be a G).  Now, maybe Wright is fixable.  I don't know.  He is still young so maybe he can clean up his footwork and technique.  Is Brax the long-term answer at LT?  Do you give him the big payday and anoint him the guy?  I don't know that either.  You're right that Jenkins needs to go.  Bates was never really "here" to begin with, but he needs to go also.  Shelton?  I hate to admit it, but he has had 5 of the last 6 games that he played much better pass protection.  He is not the long term answer there at C, but maybe he stays one more season and the new kid we draft plays G that first season.  I know Shelton was horrific the first number of games but he has improved quite a bit.

[brasilbear]

Nov 19, 2024 11:54:40 GMT -6 mpbears68 said:

Nov 19, 2024 11:24:30 GMT -6 brasilbear said:

woof, I just checked the Fran-Tag and the Transition-Tag and both are way more than I'd offer Jenkins. 

Fran-Tag (projected) for OL $25mil and Transition-Tag is $22.7 mil. Wow, I was way off in my thinking on that. I thought Transtition tag would be about $10mil less. If I were Jenkins and the Bears tagged me, I'd sign either one immediately. I'm going to edit my post and take that option out.

That's what I was trying to tell you.  Guards and Centers almost never get tagged because its too expensive to justify.  Another reason why KC probably will have to let Trey Smith go.

I never doubted you, I just hadn't checked and made the assumption that the Transtitioin Tag was an option. No.Way.

Throw whatever money they need to at Smith.