Alex Smith to DC, Cousins is free...

[rosto17]

How does that affect the Bears?

Let's say Cleveland adds Cousins, what happens at 1 and 4? Can they trade out of pick 1? Would they want to? Or do they like one if the QBs more. I have so many questions/ideas.



I didn't know where to post this, went here to be safe.

[riczaj01]

I think its safe to say, regardless of FA, b/c of trades that at least 1 or 2 qb's will go before the Bears. But here you can see the current nfl.com scouting reports/grades. There are currently 6 players graded a 7+. There was only 1 last year, Garrett, and 3 in 2016 and 2 in 2015. None of those high grades this year are OT's and only 1 qb, if an OT and 1 or 2 more qb's go b/c of trades you are going to get a really stud player at 8. If the board falls completely wrong your still going to get a damn good player. 

This is a really good year for players at the top of the draft, even if all those elite players were to go ahead of the Bears(not likely b/c of the overwhelming need at qb for several teams) the next group is still graded out really high for even top 10 picks. Guys like Derwin, Landry, Brown, Jackson, Ward, McGlinchey are all going to be there. Sadly it's a bad draft year for pass rushers, really only 2 or 3 worth taking, and that 3rd Landry, isn't really an ideal candidate for Pace who likes measurables, but it does allow for Pace to get a legit stud at CB or OT, or a NT which could allow the Bears to move Goldman outside occassionally, or since they spend a lot of time in a base 4-3 sub package to have Goldman as the DT and a guy like Payne or Vea as the anchor. 

I think it's safe to say that barkley, nelson, chubb, 2 qb's(doesn't matter who) and Fitzpatrick area all going to be gone, that's 6 guys, and 4 of 7+ graded special players. So either Edmunds(OLB/ILB best lb'r in the draft) or Ridley(best WR in the draft and by far) are going to be there. If the mocks are right(and they never are) and 1 or 2 more qbs are drafted that opens up the possibility of Nelson or Chubb, I just don't buy it I don't think the qb class is that strong for teams to bust their ass to move up to get them. My guess is teams get FA's and hope the qb's fall back to them while the teams up top wait like SF and Cleveland did last year. Reports are that Cleveland tried to trade for Smith, wouldn't surprise me if they want to get an FA that can last 2-3 more years and then take another look at Kizer who might have learned something by then.

[brasilbear]

Somewhere I had a list of FA QBs and those you might get in a trade. I think it went....

Brees/JimmyG--neither of which I see moving teams
Cousins/Smith/Taylor--all of whom could be traded for.
Bridgewater/Bradford/Keneen-- two of these three will be out there

May have been someone else.

Browns, Denver, Jets are the teams that have to draft a QB if they don't sign/trade one.

Giants could unless they think they can squeak a few more seasons out of Manning.

Claiming to know what teams will trade up is guess work at this point. Redskins now don't have to trade up to get a QB so that's one less team looking to move into top 5.

[riczaj01]

Jan 31, 2018 6:06:58 GMT -6 brasilbear said:

Somewhere I had a list of FA QBs and those you might get in a trade. I think it went....

Brees/JimmyG--neither of which I see moving teams
Cousins/Smith/Taylor--all of whom could be traded for.
Bridgewater/Bradford/Keneen-- two of these three will be out there

May have been someone else.

Browns, Denver, Jets are the teams that have to draft a QB if they don't sign/trade one.

Giants could unless they think they can squeak a few more seasons out of Manning.

Claiming to know what teams will trade up is guess work at this point. Redskins now don't have to trade up to get a QB so that's one less team looking to move into top 5.

Just did a mock using nfl.com's team needs and their draft grades trying to do bpa by position of need: 


Just going to do a quick mock of the first 8 picks based on each team doing bpa by need:

www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000855910/article/2018-nfl-draft-order-and-needs-for-every-team



www.nfl.com/draft/2018/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-grade



1)Cle needs a qb/rb and CB first overall, Sam Darnold *don't care what a player says, he'll sign w/the team that drafts him b/c the money is never recouped if he doesn't and he won't get drafted as high next year for a multitude of reasons*

2)NY needs QB/rb/OT Rosen *NY trades Eli to a team like jax or Den. they don't go w/the highest graded player at bpa, barkley, but qb is always the highest team need and Rosen is still graded easily at a top 10 draftable qb

3)Ind needs OL/ILB/Edge Chubb *no OL is worth not getting the 2nd highest player in the draft especially at edge, ilb's aren't taken in the top 10, let alone top 5, although Edmund could be the exception to that rule

4) Cle RB/CB Barkley highest player graded and at position of need

5) Den OG/QB/OT Nelson, look for them to get Eli or Cousins so qb isn't a real need, Den gets the highest graded OL in the draft and 3rd highest grade to boot at 5

6) NYJ QB/RB/OT Allen Technically it should be Llamar Jackson, but I'm just not buying it, or Mayfield but his bowl appearence is going to effect his stock.

8) Bears WR/OL/CB Ridley Bears get the 6th highest graded player in the draft and they get the highest graded wr. If this was my team needs Edge would have been first, CB 2nd and WR 3rd and it would have been Edmunds but this is based on nfl.com's team needs and bpa using their grades




Even if you did have some of hte ones in front take a qb in FA, look for teams like the Bills or Bengals, the cards and Chargers to all look at moving up. 

[brasilbear]

I think your mock might be the most accurate that I have seen IMO. It really depends on the FA QBs and if there are any more trades.

[riczaj01]

Jan 31, 2018 6:55:25 GMT -6 brasilbear said:

I think your mock might be the most accurate that I have seen IMO. It really depends on the FA QBs and if there are any more trades.

And the thing is, lets say the Jets don't take Allen, they are likely going to take an OT like Brown based on those needs. Could go off script and grab ridley or Edmunds, but the Bears still get 1 of them. And their NFL grades are stupid high, most drafts only have 1 or 2 players graded 7+ since they went to that scale in 2015. This draft has 7 of them. I'm guessing the grades could, and probably will change after the combine but still crazy good draft at the top and the Bears will get a damn good player even if all 7 of those players are drafted.

[brasilbear]

Jan 31, 2018 7:25:17 GMT -6 riczaj01 said:

Jan 31, 2018 6:55:25 GMT -6 brasilbear said:

I think your mock might be the most accurate that I have seen IMO. It really depends on the FA QBs and if there are any more trades.

And the thing is, lets say the Jets don't take Allen, they are likely going to take an OT like Brown based on those needs. Could go off script and grab ridley or Edmunds, but the Bears still get 1 of them. And their NFL grades are stupid high, most drafts only have 1 or 2 players graded 7+ since they went to that scale in 2015. This draft has 7 of them. I'm guessing the grades could, and probably will change after the combine but still crazy good draft at the top and the Bears will get a damn good player even if all 7 of those players are drafted.

My concern is if the Browns sign a FA QB (doesn't matter for discussion purposes which one they do sign). With their cap space + the rookie contracts these days, signing a FA QB would give them 2 high draft picks that aren't QBs. If I were in Cleveland, I'd seriously consider throwing as much money as it took at Cousins and then take Chubbs and Barkley (switch to any two highly ranked non-QBs if you want). 

That would throw the rest of the top 10 picks into turmoil. If this happens, I could see teams racing to move up and take a QB. Might create value for trading pick #8 that I don't think is there yet. So much depends on the FA QBs.

[GrizzlyBear]

As I said earlier in the chat, Minny could/should seriously consider going after Cousins. Denver seems to be the front runner but for whatever reason John Elway likes Mayfield a lot. And according to Shurmur, Eli will probably be the starter for another year, so I don't see him moving either.

Cleveland will either take Darnold or Rosen w/ their first pick, that means you still have Buffalo, AZ and the Jets looking for a starter.

One more thing, SF can and probably will place the franchise tag on JimmyG, however that doesn't mean he can't move. I've been thinking about this for a while now. Even if they do, NE can still offer them their first rd pick and get him back. Think about it, they wouldn't have to trade up and spend a high first rd pick on an unproven and overrated QB to replace Brady, the 31st/32nd pick plus next year's 1st might be enough.

Don't underestimate BB, he'll always find a way to get what he wants.

It's gonna be interesting to see who ends up where.

[riczaj01]

Jan 31, 2018 7:56:38 GMT -6 brasilbear said:

Jan 31, 2018 7:25:17 GMT -6 riczaj01 said:

And the thing is, lets say the Jets don't take Allen, they are likely going to take an OT like Brown based on those needs. Could go off script and grab ridley or Edmunds, but the Bears still get 1 of them. And their NFL grades are stupid high, most drafts only have 1 or 2 players graded 7+ since they went to that scale in 2015. This draft has 7 of them. I'm guessing the grades could, and probably will change after the combine but still crazy good draft at the top and the Bears will get a damn good player even if all 7 of those players are drafted.

My concern is if the Browns sign a FA QB (doesn't matter for discussion purposes which one they do sign). With their cap space + the rookie contracts these days, signing a FA QB would give them 2 high draft picks that aren't QBs. If I were in Cleveland, I'd seriously consider throwing as much money as it took at Cousins and then take Chubbs and Barkley (switch to any two highly ranked non-QBs if you want). 

That would throw the rest of the top 10 picks into turmoil. If this happens, I could see teams racing to move up and take a QB. Might create value for trading pick #8 that I don't think is there yet. So much depends on the FA QBs.

I don't think it would though. under your theory Chubb goes first, NY gets Darnold, Indy goes Nelson, Cle goes Barkley, Den goes Brown, Jets go Rosen Bears still end up w/Ridley or Edmunds. That's IF someone doesn't trade up for Allen or Rosen before the Jets.

[riczaj01]

Jan 31, 2018 7:59:58 GMT -6 riczaj01 said:

Jan 31, 2018 7:56:38 GMT -6 brasilbear said:

My concern is if the Browns sign a FA QB (doesn't matter for discussion purposes which one they do sign). With their cap space + the rookie contracts these days, signing a FA QB would give them 2 high draft picks that aren't QBs. If I were in Cleveland, I'd seriously consider throwing as much money as it took at Cousins and then take Chubbs and Barkley (switch to any two highly ranked non-QBs if you want). 

That would throw the rest of the top 10 picks into turmoil. If this happens, I could see teams racing to move up and take a QB. Might create value for trading pick #8 that I don't think is there yet. So much depends on the FA QBs.

I don't think it would though. under your theory Chubb goes first, NY gets Darnold, Indy goes Nelson, Cle goes Barkley, Den goes Brown, Jets go Rosen Bears still end up w/Ridley or Edmunds. That's IF someone doesn't trade up for Allen or Rosen before the Jets.

Or think about this, NY doesn't go darnold(keeps Eli) they go Brown or Barkley, Cle goes Barkley or Minkah, Den trades out of their spot b/c they have a qb and no OT/OG is worth taking, a team takes Rosen, and the rest is unchanged. 


now again, that's all before FA, and just b/c nfl.com says those are the top needs doesn't mean it is, again I'd say Bears top 3 needs are Edge/WR/CB